Trends
Global telecom capex to stabilise after peak, says Dell’Oro
After two years of falling investment, the global telecommunications sector’s capital expenditure (capex) is stabilising. Dell’Oro Group’s latest report shows capex holding steady year-on-year in Q2 2025, with forecasts pointing to a gradual easing before a modest rise in capital intensity by 2029.
Headline
After two years of falling investment, the global telecommunications sector’s capital expenditure (capex) is stabilising. Dell’Oro Group’s latest report shows capex holding steady year-on-year in Q2 2025, with forecasts pointing to a gradual easing before a modest rise in…
Context
What happened: Capex Decline Halts as Spending Levels Off According to a recent report by Dell’Oro Group , global telecom capex has stopped shrinking — it was stable in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. This halt in decline follows two straight years of reductions. In the first half of 2025, overall capex is still down year-on-year, reflecting that the first quarter saw steeper declines than what was recovered in Q2.
Evidence
Pending intelligence enrichment.
Analysis
Dell’Oro forecasts that while capex-to-revenue ratios (sometimes called “capital intensity”) have begun to decline from their peak in 2022, the drop will moderate. They expect the ratio to stay relatively stable through 2025, ease slightly afterwards, and then gradually increase toward 2029. Specifically, the global capital intensity is expected to approach 15 % by 2029, down about three percentage points from its high. In wireless (especially post-5G rollout), the intensity is projected to be around 12-13 %, which is five to six percentage points below its peak. Also read: Dell’Oro Group predicts flat growth for RAN market Also read: Global telecom capex dips 8% in 2024 Stabilising capex signals to telecom operators, equipment vendors and investors that the worst of the contraction may be behind them. For operators, it may mean moving away from overly broad network coverage builds and refocusing on capacity, quality, automation, and energy efficiency — areas where returns may be more justifiable.
Key Points
- Capex stayed flat in Q2 2025 compared with the same period last year, following sharper declines earlier; capex-to-revenue ratios are expected to drop from peak then edge up by 2029.
- Wireless capital intensity (capex divided by operator revenue) is projected to fall from its 5G peak, reaching about 12-13 % by 2029.
Actions
Pending intelligence enrichment.
