Trends
Thai stocks poised for rebound in second half of year
SET anticipates for the recovery of Thai stocks As global markets continue to navigate uncertainty, SET anticipates a potential rebound for Thai stocks in the latter half of the year. Factors such as recovering tourism and exports, a weaker baht, and increased fiscal budget disbursement are expected…
Headline
SET anticipates for the recovery of Thai stocks As global markets continue to navigate uncertainty, SET anticipates a potential rebound for Thai stocks in the latter half of the year. Factors such as recovering tourism and exports, a weaker baht, and increased fiscal budget…
Context
As global markets continue to navigate uncertainty, SET anticipates a potential rebound for Thai stocks in the latter half of the year. Factors such as recovering tourism and exports, a weaker baht, and increased fiscal budget disbursement are expected to bolster market performance after a 2.7% decline year-to-date, positioning Thailand’s stock index among the worst performers globally. Soraphol Tulayasathien , senior executive vice-president of the SET, highlighted the recent easing of investor concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and volatile oil prices. “Investors were less anxious over escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Oil and gold prices soared last month as inflation may decline slower than expected,” he noted during a recent briefing.
Evidence
Pending intelligence enrichment.
Analysis
The fluctuation of the baht against the dollar in April, with the local currency leading declines among Asian peers, remains a point of monitoring for investors. Additionally, attention is focused on US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates. Although the Fed has maintained its policy rate for a sixth consecutive meeting, chairman Jerome Powell’s cautionary remarks suggest a prolonged period of high rates, impacting global market sentiment. Looking ahead, Mr. Soraphol expressed optimism about Thailand’s economic outlook for 2024, citing anticipated growth in private consumption and the tourism sector. “Government spending will likely be another impetus for the remainder of this year after public spending and investment shrunk because of a delayed budget bill for fiscal 2024,” he added. Also read: Major Thai crypto exchange bolsters workforce ahead of IPO In response to these developments, analysts have revised forward earnings per share for the SET index, while many Thai stock sectors remain undervalued compared to historical averages. Despite a 0.7% monthly decline in April, the SET index’s performance outpaced regional averages, with year-to-date losses mitigated by improved investor sentiment.
Key Points
- The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) anticipates a potential rebound for Thai stocks in the second half of the year, driven by recovering tourism and exports, a weaker baht, and increased fiscal budget disbursement.
- Despite recent geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices, investor concerns have eased, with attention now focused on US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
- Thailand’s capital market evolution traces back to the 1960s, reflecting the nation’s commitment to economic development, while challenges persist, including declining trading volumes on the Thailand Futures Exchange.
Actions
Pending intelligence enrichment.
