Geoff Huston

Geoff Huston is profiled by BTW Media because public-source evidence links it to internet infrastructure, governance, operational dependencies, or market visibility.

• IPv6 adoption reached ~60% globally by early 2026, yet IPv4 remains indispensable for payment systems, legacy integrations, and industrial controls—sustaining demand through 2030+.
• IPv4 lease rates (~$0.48/address/month) deliver 12-16% annualised returns, transforming blocks into income-generating digital capital.

The Uncomfortable Truth: 60% IPv6 Adoption, Yet IPv4 Holds Value

When IPv4 prices corrected from $30-40 to ~$22 per address in late 2025, industry observers declared demand collapse. They were wrong.

Mike Burns of IPTrading captured the reality in a recent webinar: “Price movement doesn’t tell the whole story. Usage hasn’t declined—market structure changed.”

According to Google IPv6 Statistics, roughly 60% of users now access major services via IPv6 as of early 2026. Yet Geoff Huston, Chief Scientist at APNIC, offered a sobering assessment in January 2026: “The age of a universally connected Internet may be waning.”

What we face is not a clean transition, but a fragmented landscape. IPv6 dominates consumer networks. IPv4 persists in critical niches: payment systems (PCI-DSS compliance), legacy SaaS (vendor IP restrictions), industrial controls (15-20 year replacement cycles), and third-party APIs lacking IPv6 support.

This prolonged coexistence has elevated IPv4 from technical protocol to scarce economic asset.

Why Price and Volume Diverged

The 2025 correction reflects three structural factors, not declining relevance.

First, large block buyer concentration. Blocks exceeding /16 (65,536+ addresses) are purchased by limited buyers: hyperscalers, large carriers, investment entities. When multiple sellers compete for few institutional purchasers, pricing pressure becomes inevitable.

Second, pandemic-era inventory release. Address holders released inventory from 2020-2022, creating temporary oversupply.

Third, reduced hyperscaler participation. Major cloud providers slowed IPv4 acquisitions in 2024 as IPv6 deployments matured.

Critical insight: smaller blocks (/24, ~256 addresses) trade at $25-35+ per address versus ~$9-15 for /16+ blocks. This segmentation indicates healthy underlying demand despite headline price declines.

The Leasing Revolution: 12-16% Returns on Digital Capital

Lease rates average ~$0.48 per address per month. At $22 market value, this delivers 12-16% annualised returns—calculated as ($0.48 × 12) / $22, adjusted for utilisation.

A European cloud provider’s case proves instructive. The company retained its legacy /19 block (8,192 addresses) while leasing idle portions under RIPE NCC-compliant agreements:

• Annual lease income: ~$23,593 (leasing ~4,096 addresses)
• Management overhead: ~5 hours/month
• Flexibility: 60-day recall rights maintained

By classifying IPv4 as operational infrastructure rather than trading asset, the company avoided earnings volatility while aligning engineering and financial strategy. Lease income offset network maintenance costs, transforming a cost centre into a yield generator.

The IPv6 Reality: Progress Without Displacement

IPv6 adoption trajectory:

• 2016: ~10-15% (mobile networks in Asia)
• 2020: ~30-35% (hyperscalers, government mandates)
• 2024: ~45-50% (consumer ISPs, content providers)
• Early 2026: ~60% (organic growth)

Source: Google IPv6 Statistics

Progress is significant, but displacement has not occurred.

The panel at a recent IPXO-hosted webinar was clear: IPv6 has not displaced IPv4 in production networks. Most ISPs still build around IPv4. Dual-stack deployments introduce additional cost and complexity.

Payment gateways, legacy integrations, industrial controls, and third-party APIs continue relying on stable IPv4 endpoints—especially where compliance requires fixed IP whitelisting.

For CFOs and planners: model IPv4 as long-duration operational asset, similar to fibre or data centre real estate, with useful life beyond 2030.

Four Strategic Imperatives

First, utilisation efficiency. Regular audits; partial leasing for underutilised blocks. RIPE NCC’s December 2023 report found ~23% of allocated prefixes showed no BGP activity over six months.

Source: RIPE NCC, “IPv4 Address Space Report”, December 2023

Second, leasing for yield. Compliant leasing under RIR frameworks delivers 12-16% returns with lower risk than speculation.

Third, governance over speculation. Document transactions, obtain RIR approval, disclose in filings. SEC guidance encourages disclosure of “finite digital resources.”

Fourth, policy-driven demand monitoring. Track BEAD deployment. BEAD-funded operators will likely lease, creating sustained demand.

Sector strategies:

• Financial services, healthcare, government: Long-term ownership for auditability and compliance
• Cloud providers: Hybrid—own core, lease edge
• AI/ML infrastructure: Lease-heavy for IP rotation
• Regional ISPs: Lease-focused for capital efficiency

Forward Look: What to Watch

As LARUS states: “IPv4 is no longer abundant, but it is still essential.” That distinction defines resilience versus vulnerability. For organisations treating IPv4 as strategic digital capital rather than technical overhead, scarcity becomes opportunity—not constraint.

The dual-protocol reality extends beyond 2030. Leasing delivers attractive returns. Governance matters. BEAD creates policy-driven demand.

The internet’s future is not IPv4 or IPv6—it is a complex ecosystem where both coexist. In this ecosystem, scarcity itself is a strategic asset.