• MBSB expects DNB's financial impact on mobile operators to remain limited in Q4 2026, with 2027 becoming the first full year of its effect
  • Maxis and CelcomDigi continued adding postpaid customers in the second quarter even as postpaid revenue per user declined

The fact

MBSB Research expects Malaysian telecom operators to continue growing service revenue through consumer and enterprise services while the financial effect of Digital Nasional Bhd begins appearing in their accounts. The research house expects DNB's inclusion from the fourth quarter of 2026 to have little immediate effect, with operators indicating a bottom-line impact of less than 5%. The first full-year effect will come in 2027.

Consumer mobile remains the largest part of service revenue for Maxis and CelcomDigi. Maxis increased its postpaid customer base by 4.9% year on year in the second quarter, while CelcomDigi recorded 3.8% growth. However, postpaid average revenue per user fell 1.1% to RM70.50 at Maxis and 4.5% to RM60 at CelcomDigi. MBSB expects postpaid migration, fibre and enterprise services to support revenue. CelcomDigi's fibre revenue rose 33.8%, while Maxis recorded 3.7% growth in enterprise revenue.

The assessment

From 2027, DNB will be reflected in the operators' accounts for a full year, making its financial effect easier to judge. For Maxis and CelcomDigi, the question is whether growth in their existing mobile, fibre, and enterprise businesses can cover that cost without putting too much pressure on earnings.

Both operators are still adding postpaid customers, but revenue per user is falling. That means subscriber growth alone will not be enough. They also need to earn more from fibre, bundled services and enterprise customers, while delivering the cost savings they expect from their businesses.

For BTW readers, 2027 should show whether that approach is working. If service revenue keeps growing and cost savings offset most of DNB's impact, the operators should be able to absorb it without a major hit to earnings. If revenue per customer continues to fall or savings disappoint, DNB will become a more visible drag on their financial performance.

What to Watch

Watch DNB's first contribution to Maxis and CelcomDigi's accounts in the fourth quarter, followed by the first full-year figures in 2027. Postpaid ARPU, fibre and enterprise revenue, cost savings and the reported DNB contribution will show whether growth in the core businesses is enough to offset the new financial burden.