• Rystad estimates direct data-centre cooling-water use could rise from 222 billion litres in 2025 to 644 billion litres by 2030
  • Its aggressive water-saving scenario cuts the 2030 figure to 388 billion litres, showing how strongly cooling design affects demand

The fact

Rystad Energy estimates direct water consumption for data-centre cooling could rise from about 222 billion litres in 2025 to 644 billion litres by 2030 in its central scenario. A moderate-efficiency case puts 2030 consumption at 543 billion litres, while more aggressive water-saving measures reduce the estimate to about 388 billion litres.

The research firm says cooling technology, climate and operating practices account for much of the difference. It estimates dry cooling can save about 2.15 litres of water per kWh of IT load, but may require an additional 0.30 to 0.74kWh of electricity. The forecasts cover water consumed directly for cooling and do not include the full water footprint associated with electricity generation.

The assessment

Rystad’s scenarios suggest that rising compute demand does not translate into one fixed water requirement. Much of the difference comes down to how new facilities are cooled and where they are built. A developer can reduce direct water use with dry or lower-water cooling, but that choice may increase the site’s electricity requirement. In water-stressed locations, the benefit may justify the extra power demand; elsewhere, a different balance may make more sense. The trade-off therefore has to be considered while the cooling and power systems are being designed, not after the facility is operating.

For BTW readers, 644 billion litres should be read as a scenario, not a certainty. The amount of water new facilities consume will depend heavily on cooling design, and some lower-water systems simply shift more of the resource burden onto electricity.

What to watch

Watch the cooling designs chosen for new hyperscale and AI projects, particularly in water-stressed regions. Reported water-usage effectiveness, electricity demand and planning requirements will show whether developers are moving towards lower-water systems and how much additional power those choices require.