• Around 205GW of large-load demand was initially eligible for ERCOT's Batch Zero process, more than twice the grid's 91.3GW record peak
  • ERCOT is now auditing roughly 250 to 300 projects representing about 200GW before the first batch study can move ahead

The fact

Texas's proposed large-load projects are far larger than the electricity demand ERCOT currently serves at peak, panellists said at Datacloud USA in Austin on 3 September. Around 205GW of proposed demand was initially eligible for ERCOT's Batch Zero interconnection process, compared with a record system peak of 91.3GW reached in July. The comparison does not mean ERCOT expects peak demand to rise by 125%: the 205GW represents projects seeking grid access, not operating load or an ERCOT demand forecast, and many may never be built.

Governor Greg Abbott ordered ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission of Texas in August to verify projects before the Batch Zero study proceeds. The audit covers roughly 250 to 300 projects representing about 200GW of proposed demand, most of them data centres. Verification now takes place before the interconnection study, and projects that do not meet the required criteria will not advance through the process.

The Assessment

The audit changes what a place in ERCOT's Batch Zero process means for a data-centre developer. Entering the process is no longer enough to move directly into the first batch study. Projects must first clear the state's verification work before ERCOT determines which proposed loads should advance.

That distinction matters because 205GW of requested load is not 205GW of data-centre capacity that the Texas grid can deliver. Once verification is complete, ERCOT must still determine where qualifying projects could connect and what transmission upgrades would be needed to serve them.

For BTW readers, the 205GW figure describes the scale of ERCOT's planning problem, not the amount of new capacity that will necessarily be built. The more useful figure will be how many gigawatts remain after verification, because that is the proposed load ERCOT must study in the next stage of grid planning.

What to watch

Watch how many projects and gigawatts remain in Batch Zero after verification. ERCOT is working towards a 10 December report to the PUCT, while a revised study timetable and later transmission requirements will show which proposed loads can move closer to a grid connection.