• MVNOs are expected to exceed 30% of UK mobile connections excluding M2M by 2031, up from about 23% today
  • App-based providers from fintech and other sectors are forecast to reach more than three million customers by 2031

The fact

Technology research firm FDM CCS Insight forecasts that UK MVNO connections will grow 51% between the start of 2026 and the end of 2031. The figure excludes operator-owned sub-brands such as giffgaff and Voxi. By 2031, MVNOs are expected to account for more than 30% of UK mobile connections, excluding machine-to-machine services, up from about 23% today. Their service revenue is forecast to rise from just under £2.4 billion in 2025 to more than £4.5 billion in 2031.

The firm also expects app-based providers from fintech and other sectors to reach more than three million customers by 2031, equivalent to 11% of the MVNO market. Monzo offers eSIM-only mobile plans that customers manage through its banking app. Revolut Mobile uses Vodafone’s network through Gigs and is managed through the Revolut app.

The assessment

App-based brands can add mobile services to apps their customers already use, rather than building a separate retail operation. The network still comes from established operators, so the company selling the service does not have to own the underlying mobile infrastructure.

For host operators, that creates a commercial trade-off. MVNOs can generate wholesale revenue and traffic, while the virtual provider controls its own pricing, brand and customer relationship. FDM CCS Insight expects operators to take a stricter approach when wholesale contracts are renegotiated. If that happens, contract terms could become a bigger constraint on how quickly fintech-led MVNOs expand.

For BTW readers, the division is clear: app-based brands can control the customer experience, but network operators still control access to the infrastructure. As MVNOs grow, the terms of that access will matter more.

What to watch

Monzo, Revolut, and other app-based providers may begin disclosing subscriber numbers as their mobile services expand. New host-network agreements and contract renewals will also be important. Changes to wholesale pricing, access conditions or network partners would show whether operators are tightening the terms under which MVNOs can grow.