Summary

  • From 1 July 2027, NBN Co’s entry-level fixed-line offers must be 25/10 Mbps, with the closest fixed-wireless equivalent where that tier is unavailable. The ACCC does not expect core-service revenue to exceed regulated costs during the 2026–29 cycle, so regulated wholesale prices remain capped by CPI.
  • The ACCC’s $6.97 billion second-cycle capital-expenditure allowance is not a blank cheque: the decision ties future recovery to prudent and efficient expenditure, with several adjustments grounded in need, willingness to pay and business-case evidence.

The speed announcement and the price decision answer different questions. One specifies an entry point into wholesale broadband; the other limits how regulated wholesale charges may move while NBN Co’s regulated services remain below the cost-recovery threshold. Neither figure alone tells a household what its retail plan will cost.

The ACCC’s final determination covers the three years from 1 July 2026 to 30 June 2029. It sets 25/10 Mbps fixed-line entry-level offers from July 2027 and the closest equivalent on fixed wireless where that speed tier is not available. That is a wholesale offer requirement. Retail providers still package access with their own prices, data allowances and other terms.

At the same time, the ACCC says NBN Co will not reach cost recovery for core regulated services in this cycle. Its wholesale prices therefore stay subject to a CPI cap. A CPI cap is not a price freeze: it permits increases linked to inflation. More importantly, it does not give NBN Co an unrestricted right to pass every investment cost through. The regulator says that, when cost recovery is reached in a future period, prices should recover only expenditure it finds prudent and efficient.

That makes the treatment of capital spending the less visible affordability decision. The ACCC set first-cycle prudent and efficient capital expenditure at $10.62 billion in real FY2024 dollars, and forecast second-cycle capital expenditure at $6.97 billion on the same real-dollar basis. The second-cycle figure includes alternative expenditure amounts where need, end-user willingness to pay or a robust business case is not demonstrated. Most adjustments reflect the ministerial cap on the remaining fibre-to-the-node upgrades. These figures describe capital expenditure; they are not retail-price forecasts.

The ACCC also set the second-cycle annual building block model revenue requirement at $16.75 billion in 2014 dollars. That measure is part of the regulatory revenue model and uses a different dollar base from the capital-expenditure figures. The decision’s logic is a sequence: assess the costs and investment that may enter the regulated framework, set the revenue requirement, then constrain wholesale price changes while the cost-recovery condition remains unmet.

The distinction matters for consumers and access seekers. A 25/10 offer can define the bottom of the wholesale product range without guaranteeing that a retail plan will be affordable, available at every address or delivered at its headline performance. Conversely, CPI-limited wholesale prices do not by themselves prove that a specific household bill will remain unchanged. The ACCC’s own explanation is about wholesale access under NBN Co’s special access undertaking, not a retail tariff imposed on every provider.

The undertaking has been in place since 2013 and is scheduled to operate through 2040. This is the first replacement-module determination after its October 2023 variation. NBN Co filed its application in July 2025; the ACCC published a draft in March 2026, extended the deadline for the final decision and then issued the determination in August. The project timeline shows how the final settings emerged from that process. Consultation supplied evidence and objections; the ACCC made the binding determination under the undertaking.

The ACCC also left planned low-earth-orbit satellite and “built for business” services inside the core regulated-service category. It made no product recategorisations. That keeps those offers within the same framework for this cycle, even as technologies and customer segments differ. The determination index lists the decision, reasons, public building-block model and supporting advice, allowing market participants to inspect the model behind the headline outcomes.

The decision does not settle whether the 2027 entry offer will attract take-up, what retail providers will charge, or when the regulated business will actually reach cost recovery. Those are outcomes to measure, not facts established by the determination. Its immediate test is whether NBN Co can deliver the stated wholesale offers and service settings while keeping future cost claims within the evidentiary boundary the ACCC has set.

Sources