Summary
- Separate vehicle margins, volume, software claims, capital needs and regulatory exposure into explicit assumptions.
- Test downside, dilution and time horizon against alternatives before treating conviction as evidence.
The question is not whether Tesla is good or bad, but which future cash flows the current price already assumes. Investors should build base, upside and downside cases, identify claims that lack operating evidence and size exposure for uncertainty. The next useful evidence is a written thesis with disconfirming indicators and a review date. A scenario will not predict the market, but it makes risk and changing facts visible. This is analysis, not personalised investment advice.
