• Iraq’s regulator says the system analyses more than 6,400 towers to forecast where Arbaeen traffic will rise and guide temporary network deployments
  • Operators can use the forecasts to target added capacity, but no accuracy or service-performance results have yet been published

The fact

Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission says mobile operators are using an AI-based system to prepare for a projected 135% rise in telecom traffic in Karbala during the peak of the Arbaeen pilgrimage. The regulator says the system analyses data from more than 6,400 towers and thousands of network cells. A live heat map shows where demand is increasing, helping technical teams decide where to add capacity, deploy temporary sites or move network resources.

This is the first time Iraq has used the system during a major pilgrimage season. More than 21 million people visited Karbala for Arbaeen in 2025, while the commission recorded over 475 million local and international calls during the 40-day pilgrimage period in 2024. Iraq has used temporary mobile stations, extra towers and additional network cells at previous religious gatherings. However, the commission has not said which measures operators have taken in response to this year’s forecast.

The assessment

Mobile operators can respond to short bursts of demand by adding temporary base stations, increasing capacity at busy cells or shifting resources across the network. The forecasting system could help them make those decisions earlier by showing where congestion is most likely to develop. Its value lies in helping operators place existing and temporary capacity more accurately, not in creating new capacity on its own.

The commission has not published the model’s accuracy, forecast window, or the point at which operators are expected to intervene. The 135% figure measures expected traffic growth rather than service quality. For BTW readers, the meaningful evidence will be whether operators add capacity in the right locations and keep calls and mobile data working as demand peaks.

What to watch

Watch for CMC figures on actual traffic, call completion, data speeds and service availability during Arbaeen. Details on where operators added temporary sites or extra cell capacity would show whether the forecast influenced deployment decisions. Comparing predicted demand with recorded network loads would show how closely the model matched conditions on the ground.