Omdia forecasts cellular IoT connections will grow from 4.3bn in 2026 to 5.9bn by 2035. The study expects NB-IoT, mMTC and eRedCap to account for 65% of connections, while automotive demand and smart infrastructure deployments create major growth paths. China's operator and vendor scale remains central to the market structure.
Publishes technology and telecommunications market research used to assess cellular IoT adoption and vendor competition.
Omdia's cellular IoT forecast provides a public signal on long-term module demand, 5G IoT technology adoption and operator market structure.
Publishes technology and telecommunications market research used to assess cellular IoT adoption and vendor competition.
The forecast points to a more layered cellular IoT market, with eRedCap adoption, automotive connectivity and Chinese operator scale shaping competitive positioning.
The forecast points to a more layered cellular IoT market, with eRedCap adoption, automotive connectivity and Chinese operator scale shaping competitive positioning.
Omdia forecasts cellular IoT connections to reach 5.9bn by 2035 as eRedCap gains ground and China keeps market scale.
The forecast points to a more layered cellular IoT market, with eRedCap adoption, automotive connectivity and Chinese operator scale shaping competitive positioning.
Published reporting
• Connections are forecast to rise from 4.3bn in 2026 to 5.9bn by 2035
• China's operator and vendor scale remains central to the market structure
The fact
Omdia forecasts global cellular IoT connections will grow from 4.3bn in 2026 to 5.9bn by 2035, with NB-IoT, mMTC and eRedCap expected to account for 65% of connections. The study says eRedCap could outperform RedCap as lower module prices and wider 5G Standalone availability reduce adoption barriers. Growth is also concentrated by vertical and market structure: automotive is forecast to exceed 1bn connections by 2035, while China's three main operators held 74% of global cellular IoT connections in the second half of 2025.
The Assessment
The shift is not simply more IoT connections but a more layered cellular market. NB-IoT remains the high-volume, low-power option, while eRedCap gives operators and enterprises a mid-tier 5G path for use cases needing more capability than basic IoT but without full 5G module costs. That matters for automotive, smart grid, utility and electric-vehicle charging deployments where connectivity requirements are rising but price discipline remains tight. China's operator scale and module supply influence global pricing, leaving Western suppliers to defend security-sensitive verticals rather than compete on volume.
For infrastructure operators, the question is whether the data pipelines behind these connections can be designed for cross-network portability from the start.
What to Watch
Watch whether eRedCap pricing and 5G SA coverage turn early module launches into scaled deployments. Automotive and smart infrastructure choices outside China will be the clearest test.
Signal Brief
- Signal: Omdia sees cellular IoT growth shift towards eRedCap dominance
- Signal Type: Cellular IOT Market Forecast
- Region: Global
- Market Class: National Telecom
Operating Surface
- Published sources should identify the affected parties, operating surface, and market exposure before this trend map is treated as complete.
Market Context
- The forecast points to a more layered cellular IoT market, with eRedCap adoption, automotive connectivity and Chinese operator scale shaping competitive positioning.
- Operational relevance: Medium
- Time Horizon: Multi-year
What To Watch
- Watch for official statements, regulatory updates, customer or partner exposure, and follow-up disclosures.
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