D2C user growth masks seasonal usage gap

Juniper Research forecasts direct-to-cell services will reach 133 million monthly active users by 2031, up from 17.4 million in 2026. The stronger signal is that usage remains seasonal and event-driven, creating a monetisation gap for satellite operators.

• MAUs to reach 133 million by 2031, up from 17.4 million in 2026
• Traffic clusters around travel hubs and rural zones, urban barriers limit uptake

The fact

Juniper Research forecasts direct-to-cell services will reach 133 million monthly active users by 2031, up from 17.4 million in 2026. Growth is driven by new mobile operator launches and satellite entrants including AST SpaceMobile. Actual usage is expected to remain below projections, concentrated on travel destinations, rural areas and nature reserves. Urban density and building barriers further limit coverage.

The Assessment

D2C delivers meaningful coverage in remote areas but does not create consistent daily use, a structural gap between user projections and actual demand. Mobile operators gain network reach without terrestrial builds, but satellite operators face an ROI challenge: sporadic usage on costly LEO constellations may struggle against terrestrial networks that continue to improve rural coverage. For BTW readers, the signal is that D2C will complement rather than replace terrestrial infrastructure for the foreseeable future.

What to Watch

Whether satellite operators pivot toward temporary or pay-per-use D2C models as seasonal usage patterns make full-coverage constellations harder to justify commercially.