Juniper Research forecasts direct-to-cell services will reach 133 million monthly active users by 2031, up from 17.4 million in 2026. The stronger signal is that usage remains seasonal and event-driven, creating a monetisation gap for satellite operators.
Analyst firm tracking direct-to-cell adoption and usage trends
Its forecast highlights adoption and monetisation signals in satellite-enabled mobile connectivity.
Its forecast highlights adoption and monetisation signals in satellite-enabled mobile connectivity.
The forecast points to a gap between D2C subscriber growth and actual usage intensity.
The forecast points to a gap between D2C subscriber growth and actual usage intensity.
Juniper预测到2031年D2C用户将达到1.33亿，但季节性和低频使用可能对卫星回报构成挑战。
The forecast points to a gap between D2C subscriber growth and actual usage intensity.
| 0.90–1.00 | A | High — direct sources |
| 0.75–0.89 | A/B | Strong |
| 0.55–0.74 | B/C | Medium |
| 0.35–0.54 | C/D | Weak–medium |
| 0.10–0.34 | D | Weak signal |
| 0.00–0.09 | D | Internal monitoring |
Published reporting
• 到2031年月活用户将达1.33亿，较2026年的1740万有所增长
• 流量集中在旅行枢纽和乡村地区，城市建筑物限制使用率 另见: 英伟达在 Computex 举办首次韩国合作伙伴之夜.
事实
Juniper Research预测，到2031年，直连蜂窝（direct-to-cell）服务的月活跃用户将达到1.33亿，较2026年的1740万有所增长。这一增长受到新移动运营商推出服务以及包括AST SpaceMobile在内的卫星新进入者的推动。实际使用量预计将低于预测，主要集中在旅行目的地、乡村地区和自然保护区。城市密集度和建筑物进一步限制了覆盖范围。 另见: 阿尔贝托·普列托.
评估
D2C在偏远地区提供了有意义的覆盖，但并未促成持续的日常使用，这凸显了用户预测与实际需求之间的结构性差距。移动运营商无需进行地面建设即可扩大网络覆盖，但卫星运营商面临投资回报挑战：在昂贵的低地球轨道星座上的零星使用，可能难以与持续改善乡村覆盖的地面网络竞争。对BTW读者而言，关键信号是：在可预见的未来，D2C将成为地面基础设施的补充，而非替代。 另见: 亚马逊升级Proteus机器人，承担欧洲仓库任务.
值得关注
卫星运营商是否会转向临时或按使用付费的D2C模式，因为季节性使用模式使得全时覆盖星座在商业上难以立足。 另见: Megaport 获得四笔 AI 交易以打造推理云.
Signal Brief
- Signal: D2C用户增长掩盖季节性使用差距
- Signal Type: Direct-to-cell satellite mobile usage
- Region: Global
- Market Class: National Telecom
Operating Surface
- Published sources should identify the affected parties, operating surface, and market exposure before this trend map is treated as complete.
Market Context
- The forecast points to a gap between D2C subscriber growth and actual usage intensity.
- Operational relevance: Medium
- Time horizon: Longer term
What To Watch
- Watch for official statements, regulatory updates, customer or partner exposure, and follow-up disclosures.
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