- ASML expects sales to reach 44 billion euros to 60 billion euros by 2030, driven by AI chip demand.
- The company continues its 12 billion euros buyback programme and plans to increase dividends, despite challenges from US export controls.
What happened
ASML Holding NV, the Dutch leader in advanced chip-making machines, has reaffirmed its long-term revenue forecast, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in semiconductor demand. The company expects sales to reach between 44 billion euros and 60 billion euros by 2030, in line with previous predictions. This projection was shared during the company’s investor day on Thursday, following a disappointing third-quarter order intake that led to a selloff in ASML shares and those of other chip-related firms.
While demand from industries like automotive and consumer electronics has weakened, ASML is optimistic about AI’s growth. AI is driving significant demand for specialised chips. CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that AI will help global chip sales exceed 1 trillion dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 9%. As the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML stands to gain from the need for more advanced chips in everything from smartphones to AI accelerators.
The company also predicts double-digit annual growth in EUV spending through 2030. ASML confirmed its commitment to returning value to shareholders, maintaining a 12 billion euros buyback programme and continuing to increase dividends. However, it faces challenges from US export controls targeting China’s semiconductor industry, which restrict ASML’s ability to sell advanced technology there. Despite this, the company remains confident in its long-term prospects, with growth expected to resume by 2026.
Also read: ASML orders beat estimates as AI boom fuels chip giant
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Why it is important
ASML’s reaffirmed 2030 revenue forecast is significant because it underscores the company’s central role in the semiconductor industry, especially amid the growing demand driven by AI. As the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML is vital for manufacturing the advanced chips required for AI technologies, smartphones, and high-performance electronics. Despite recent challenges, the company’s optimism reflects confidence in AI’s potential to transform the tech sector. With AI expected to drive global chip sales past 1 trillion dollars by 2030, ASML stands to benefit from this long-term trend. Additionally, ASML’s focus on shareholder returns, through buybacks and dividends, boosts investor confidence. However, US export controls on China pose a risk, limiting ASML’s market access in the region. Even so, the company remains confident in its growth prospects, reaffirming its key role in the evolving semiconductor market.
