- IDC revises 2025 smartphone forecast from 2.3% to 0.6% growth
- US and China expected to drive modest growth, but challenges persist
What happened: IDC lowers 2025 smartphone forecast amid economic strain
IDC has lowered its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025, cutting growth estimates from 2.3% to just 0.6%. The revision, released in IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, reflects ongoing macro-economic challenges and global uncertainties.
The report highlights that rising inflation, weaker labour markets, and tariff volatility are creating significant headwinds for the smartphone sector. Many consumers are postponing new phone purchases, which is contributing to a slowdown in demand across several key markets.
IDC now expects global shipments to total 1.2 billion units in 2025. While China and the US will still contribute to overall growth, much of this increase comes from government subsidies and seasonal promotions. However, IDC warns that high device costs and limited incentives could limit demand in other regions.
Also read: IDC: Revenue from India PCS will reach $17.8 billion by 2027 Also read: Samsung edges out rivals in global smartphone shipments
Why it is important
This forecast marks a notable shift for the smartphone industry, which has long depended on consistent growth. IDC’s new data suggests that the market is maturing, with slower growth expected over the next five years. The revised forecast predicts a modest compound annual growth rate of 1.4% between 2024 and 2029.
Tariff volatility is a major factor to watch, particularly between the US and China. Higher prices caused by tariffs may push consumers to delay purchases or opt for cheaper models. IDC estimates that US smartphone growth will slow to 1.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% previously.
Apple is also facing challenges in China, where its devices remain ineligible for subsidies. The company continues to battle Huawei and other competitors. However, upcoming shopping festivals and the launch of the iPhone 17 are expected to drive demand later in the year.
