- Investors are optimistic about a long-term rally, but concerns remain over China’s property crisis and economic fundamentals.
- The Chinese CSI 300 Index rose 15.7% this week, the best performance since November 2008.
OUR TAKE
China’s stock market is riding a wave of euphoria, with the CSI 300 Index enjoying its best week since 2008, boosted by government stimulus measures and promises of further economic support. While investors are hopeful that this could signal the start of a long-term rally, there are still concerns about deeper economic issues such as the housing crisis and weak consumer spending. In my view, this optimism is promising, but it’s important to remain cautious as the sustainability of the rally depends heavily on follow-up policies and economic performance in the coming months.
–Heidi Luo, BTW reporter
What happened
China’s stock market soared this week, with the CSI 300 Index rising 15.7%, its best weekly performance since November 2008. This rally comes after the Chinese government announced a series of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, increased liquidity support for banks and a pledge to stabilise the declining property market. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has also risen for 11 consecutive sessions, its longest winning streak since 2018.
Investors are optimistic that the government’s fiscal and monetary measures will provide a sustained boost to the market. A Bloomberg survey found that most investors believe this is the start of a long-term rally, with tech stocks emerging as the top investment choice. Despite these gains, concerns remain about the lingering effects of the housing crisis and weak consumer demand.
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Why it’s important
The recent surge in China’s stock market is significant because it suggests renewed confidence in the country’s economic recovery. The government’s aggressive stimulus measures, likened to Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” moment during the European debt crisis, show a strong commitment to stabilising the economy. As Manish Bhargava of Straits Investment Management noted, these measures reflect China’s determination to turn the tide against bearish sentiment.
However, the rally also raises questions about its sustainability, especially given the long-term structural problems facing China, such as instability in the property sector and a fragile consumer market. Mark Mobius, chairman of the Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, warned that policies that discourage private investment could undermine future growth. Investors are eager to capitalise on this rally, but they will need to monitor whether these policy changes lead to real economic improvement.
