- Counterpoint Research cuts global smartphone growth forecast from 4.2% to 1.9% due to U.S. tariff uncertainty.
- Apple’s and Samsung’s shipment projections are revised down, while Huawei is expected to grow by 11%.
What happened
Global smartphone shipment growth projections have been significantly lowered following U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on imported smartphones. According to Counterpoint Research, the 2025 growth forecast was cut from 4.2% to 1.9%, with specific downgrades for Apple and Samsung Electronics.
President Trump initially excluded smartphones from his tariff list but reversed course on 23 May, proposing a minimum 25% tariff on smartphones produced abroad. This reversal impacted market expectations and shipment planning. Counterpoint revised iPhone shipment growth for 2025 down from 4% to 2.5%, while Samsung’s forecast dropped from 1.7% growth to zero. Despite this, Apple still expects total shipments to rise year-on-year, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 16 series and high-end models in emerging markets.Trump announces escalating tariffs on imports
Also read: DIDC cuts 2025 smartphone forecast on global uncertainty
Also read: Samsung edges out rivals in global smartphone shipments
Why it’s important
This shift in tariff policy reflects a broader trend of trade volatility impacting global tech supply chains. Apple and Samsung, both highly reliant on overseas manufacturing and U.S. sales, are particularly vulnerable. According to Ease Lee, Deputy Director at Counterpoint, “Tariffs have had some impact on the adjustment of growth rates,” but weakening demand in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia also contributed.
The revised forecast adds to concerns about how trade policy unpredictability may discourage investment in global manufacturing and reduce consumer purchasing power through higher retail prices. Although Apple has historically passed some costs onto consumers, sustained tariffs could undermine competitiveness, especially in mid-range markets.
In contrast, Huawei is projected to see a 11% increase in shipments in 2025. As supply chain bottlenecks ease, Huawei is regaining market share in China’s mid-to-low tier segment. This could further shift the global smartphone landscape, especially if Western manufacturers face additional cost pressures.
