- Global smartphone volumes rise minimally—just 1 per cent—though value increases at 6 per cent, as manufacturers emphasise premium features.
- GenAI integration and foldables gain traction, but regional disparities—especially in China—underline challenging market conditions.
What happened: Global smartphone shipments grow slowly as prices rise
Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by only about 1 per cent this year, reaching roughly 1.24 billion units, with modest gains expected through to 2029 at a compound annual growth rate of around 1.5 per cent. Despite the tepid volume growth, the average selling price (ASP) is rising faster, with a 5 per cent increase forecast for this year and total market value rising by 6 per cent. Regionally, the US and the Middle East & Africa see stronger performance—up 3.6 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively—while Asia-Pacific (excluding China) shows modest growth of 0.8 per cent, offsetting a 1 per cent decline in China. Nabila Popal of IDC attributes China’s slowdown to the fading impact of government subsidies. Meanwhile, GenAI-enabled smartphones account for over 370 million units—nearly 30 per cent of shipments—and foldable devices continue to mature, with an expected 6 per cent growth this year.
Also Read: IDC cuts 2025 smartphone forecast on global uncertainty
Also Read: Samsung’s new foldables start at $1,079, top out at $2,749
Why it’s important
This cautious growth underscores a pivotal shift: manufacturers are prioritising value over volume. Rising ASPs confirm a positive stance—smartphone makers are successfully justifying higher prices by embedding advanced features such as artificial intelligence and novel form factors into their devices. With GenAI adoption poised to reach over 70 per cent of shipments by 2029, according to Anthony Scarsella of IDC, what was once niche is becoming mainstream. Foldables, though still a niche segment, are growing faster than the overall market, signalling innovation-driven demand. Yet the uneven regional outcomes—especially the softness in China—highlight the fragility of stimulus-dependent demand and the risk of over-reliance on subsidy programmes. The broader context, including earlier market rebounds like the 4 per cent growth in 2024 witnessed by Counterpoint, reflects ongoing volatility and the need for strategic adaptability. For consumers, this means smartphones are becoming more capable but more costly; for OEMs, it demands balancing innovation with affordability to sustain uptake. In my view, leaning into premiumisation is the correct approach—but without eroding accessibility, long-term market resilience may be at risk.
