- Worldwide equipment revenues across six telecom segments rose 4 % year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with markets outside China growing by about 8 %.
- Dell’Oro has lifted its short-term forecast for the full year to 2-3 % growth, up from a previously flat outlook. Still, questions remain over whether this is the start of a long-term turnaround.
What happened: Global telecoms Equipment market shows broad-based recovery, led by growth outside China
Analyst Dell’Oro reports that aggregate revenues for telecom equipment rose by 4 % globally in the first half of 2025 across six major categories: broadband access, microwave and optical transport, mobile core network, radio access network (RAN), and service provider routers and switches.
The recovery is strongest outside China, where revenues increased by 8 % year-on-year. Among the segments leading the growth are mobile core networks (MCN), optical transport, and service provider routers and switches.
Dell’Oro attributes the improvement to a combination of factors: easier comparisons with weak performance in prior periods; inventory stabilisation in the supply chain; and favourable currency movements benefitting revenues denominated in stronger currencies.
Also notable: the broadband access equipment market grew by 1 % year-on-year in Q2 2025 (7 % up versus the previous quarter), with fibre and fixed wireless access (FWA) gaining at the expense of cable.
Given the improved figures, Dell’Oro has revised its outlook for 2025 upward, now expecting 2-3 % growth in equipment revenues, instead of a flat performance.
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Why it’s important
This trend suggests the telecoms industry might be at an inflection point after a prolonged period of decline. The rise in equipment spending indicates operators are beginning to reinvest, possibly in response to pent-up demand or upgrades such as fibre, FWA, or enhancements in core network infrastructure.
However, the recovery is far from universal. China remains a drag, with growth outside China doing the heavy lifting. This raises questions about how geopolitical pressures, supply chain constraints, trade policies and local regulatory environments will shape future spending. Is the strength outside China enough to offset persistent headwinds globally?
There’s also reason for caution: much of the increase may be due to easier comparison periods and currency effects, which do not necessarily reflect enduring demand. Will operators sustain higher capex, or will cost pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty pull them back?
For technology vendors, this shift offers potential relief—but success will depend on how well they can navigate regional disparities, innovation demands (e.g., Open RAN, energy efficiency), and pricing pressures. For policy-makers, the question is whether supportive regulatory frameworks can reinforce this pickup. If yes, the “pendulum” may indeed be swinging. If not, this may turn out to be a brief pause rather than a turning of the tide.
