- Dell’Oro sees RAN revenue staying flat to 2029, with LTE decline cancelling out gains from 5G and adjacent segments.
- Growth drivers like private wireless and AI‑RAN remain too small to offset macro‑scale decline in traditional network capex.
What happened: Dell’Oro offers muted RAN outlook on ‘rapid’ LTE declines
Research firm Dell’Oro Group forecasts that global Radio Access Network (RAN) revenues will remain flat through 2029, totalling around $160 billion over five years. This follows two years of steep decline that wiped out nearly $9 billion from LTE kit revenues.
While 5G and related innovations—like Open RAN, cloud-based RAN, AI-enabled RAN, mmWave, fixed-wireless access, private wireless, virtualised RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO—are growing, they are unlikely to offset LTE declines within current capex constraints.
Also read: Mavenir merges debt relief with a sharper Open RAN strategy
Also read: AT&T tests AI-generated Open RAN application on Ericsson platform
Why it’s important
The flat revenue trend reflects a transition phase in mobile infrastructure, where operators shift focus from expanding coverage to enhancing capacity. With LTE assets ageing and mobile data growth slowing, future revenues could sink if operators move into maintenance mode after completing their 5G rollouts.
On the upside, segments like private wireless are poised for expansion at a projected 20% annual growth. Yet, they are small relative to the overall RAN market and cannot reverse the downward trend.
