- Capex stayed flat in Q2 2025 compared with the same period last year, following sharper declines earlier; capex-to-revenue ratios are expected to drop from peak then edge up by 2029.
- Wireless capital intensity (capex divided by operator revenue) is projected to fall from its 5G peak, reaching about 12-13 % by 2029.
What happened: Capex Decline Halts as Spending Levels Off
According to a recent report by Dell’Oro Group, global telecom capex has stopped shrinking — it was stable in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. This halt in decline follows two straight years of reductions. In the first half of 2025, overall capex is still down year-on-year, reflecting that the first quarter saw steeper declines than what was recovered in Q2.
Dell’Oro forecasts that while capex-to-revenue ratios (sometimes called “capital intensity”) have begun to decline from their peak in 2022, the drop will moderate. They expect the ratio to stay relatively stable through 2025, ease slightly afterwards, and then gradually increase toward 2029. Specifically, the global capital intensity is expected to approach 15 % by 2029, down about three percentage points from its high. In wireless (especially post-5G rollout), the intensity is projected to be around 12-13 %, which is five to six percentage points below its peak.
Also read: Dell’Oro Group predicts flat growth for RAN market
Also read: Global telecom capex dips 8% in 2024
Why it’s important
Stabilising capex signals to telecom operators, equipment vendors and investors that the worst of the contraction may be behind them. For operators, it may mean moving away from overly broad network coverage builds and refocusing on capacity, quality, automation, and energy efficiency — areas where returns may be more justifiable.
Moreover, the forecast drop and then modest rebound in capital intensity suggests a change in how telecom revenue and investment interplay: with revenue expected to improve, operators may be able to invest more efficiently rather than just spending aggressively to keep up coverage. A more efficient investment strategy could help reduce waste or overbuild.
